Sep 1, 2016

Does a Budget Deficit always lead to a Current Account Deficit?

So in my previous post, Does a Current Account Deficit always lead to a Budget Deficit?, I answered the inverse of this question.

For those who havn’t read this post, take a quick read. It’ll set you up really nicely for this one.

We know that: (I’ve derived this in the previous post)

(Sp - I) + (T - G) = (X - M)                   - (1)
Or
(Private Saving - Investment) + Budget Balance = Current Account Balance

If follows from (1) that if there’s a Budget Deficit (T - G < 0), it’s possible for there to be a Current Account Surplus (X - M > 0) if (Sp - I) is > 0 and higher in absolute value that T - G. 

In order words, if Private Savings (Sp) in a country are higher than Investment spending (I) and are able to more than finance the Budget Deficit (T - G), there the country can have a Current Account Surplus. China is an example of one such country. 

This means that a Budget Deficit does not have to result in a Current Account Deficit. That said, the two are intimately related and if a country is running a Budget Deficit, it will be running a Current Account Deficit as well in more cases that not. 

For context, based on data I pulled from the World Bank website, roughly 65% of the countries of the world are running Current Account Deficits while the rest are running Current Account Surpluses (35%). 

Why does a Budget Deficit tend to lead to a Current Account Deficit? 

I have explained the mechanism through which this happens in detail in my post Why has the US Dollar Appreciated post Trump’s Electoral Win? dated Dec 6th, 2016. I've back-dated this current post for the purpose of flow/continuity. Take a look.

Ciao.

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