What are Advance Estimates, Provisional Estimates and Revised Estimates?

As a follow-up to my previous post, New Series of National Accounts: The Dork Awakens, I think it’s a good idea to do a quick post on the nomenclature and release dates of annual GDP estimates (for the same year) and related macro-economic aggregates. 

Why? Because there is nothing more annoying on this planet than GDP estimates for the same year that don’t tally. OK, so maybe a guy stealing your parking spot is more annoying, but this is a very, very, very close second.

Let me elaborate. The GDP Estimate for 2014-15 for instance, could have 5 different values depending on when you looked/look up this estimate. In Feb 2015, the Advance Estimate for 2014-15 GDP was released; at the end of May 2015, you got the Provisional Estimate; in Jan 2016, you got the First Revised Estimate; in Jan 2017, the Second Revised Estimate will be released; and finally, in Jan 2018, you'll get the Third Revised Estimate for 2014-15 GDP. Phew! *wipes her brow. 

Why so many revisions? Because it takes time for government agencies to access finalised data required in the compilation of GDP and other macro-economic estimates. See the table below for details (click on table to enlarge). 

Nomenclature and Release Dates for Annual GDP Estimates released at various points of time for a given year:

Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) press releases (http://mospi.nic.in/Mospi_New/site/inner.aspx?status=3&menu_id=82)

Notes:

1 The Index of Industrial Production is released on the 10th of every month with a lag of 40 days. For instance, the IIP for Dec 2015 was released on the 10th of Feb, 2016. On the 7th of Feb of each year, when Advance Estimates for GDP and other macro aggregates are released, only 8 months of IIP data is available for that FY (Apr - Nov).

2  Nomenclature and Release Dates for Annual Crop Production Estimates released at various points of time for a given year:

Source: Ministry of Agriculture press releases (http://pib.nic.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=126120)

This quick read will hopefully save you a lot of future pain!

Ciao.